Brazil: 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas citrus belt

Updated orange¹ crop forecast totals 269.36 million boxes

The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² –, is 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. The first forecast update, published in September, already showed a drop as compared to the initial projection, but the expected production was significantly hindered by late rainfall in the spring and intense heat. In this second forecast update, a decrease of 18.40 million boxes represents a drop of 6.39 % in relation to the initial forecast. Should this new projection hold true until harvest ends, it will result in the largest crop loss for the citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988-1989 and a downturn of 30.36 % in comparison to the previous crop season. Approximately 19.35 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.

A poor outlook for rainfall was expected in 2020 due to the possibility of the climate event La Niña forming, which was officially confirmed in September. However, other phenomena, such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, simultaneously contributed to less rainfall and increased temperatures that reached unprecedented levels in several regions of the citrus belt. Consequently, the effects on groves resulting from adverse weather conditions this year were much worse as compared to those observed during the last La Niña, between November 2017 and April 2018. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.