Global beer market to see US$55.4bn loss in COVID-19 adjusted 2022 forecasts, says GlobalData

Despite the initial scare for the beer and cider market, expectation is that new 2022 forecasts, which falls short of the original baseline expectations, could have been much worse, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to the company’s recent (June 5) COVID-19 adjusted forecasts, the global beer and cider market will recover to 2019 value by 2022, reaching US$630.4bn in 2022; this represents a difference of -US$55.4bn against the previous baseline value of that same year^*.

Aaron Bryson, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The substantial shrinkage is a reflection of the damage caused by a nonexistent foodservice channel throughout much of the year. In contrast, consumer confidence, which was initially decimated but rebounded relatively quickly, saw consumers retreating to the comfort of their own home with their favorite brands of beer and cider, as opposed to at the local pub.”

According to GlobalData’s Week 10 COVID-19 tracker consumer survey, published on June 3, 43 % of global respondents still expect the situation to get worse over the next month in their respective countries^*2. Despite this, consumers purchasing habits in relation to beer and cider have largely been maintained. The same survey found that 45 %^*3 of respondents have been purchasing the same amount or more beer, since the outbreak of COVID-19. In contrast, only 28 %^*4 of respondents stated that they had reduced or stopped buying beer since the outbreak.

A similar story is seen with cider. The survey found that 33 %^*3 of respondents had maintained or increased the volume of cider they purchase, and 28 %^*4 had also reduced or stopped purchasing cider, since the outbreak.

Bryson continues: “The original concern displayed at the beginning of the outbreak had limited longer impacts upon beer and cider sales. A key reason being that, at home drinking is part of a routine for certain consumer cohorts in which they derive both pleasure and comfort. Something which most people have been looking for since the outbreak.”

Whilst the outlook for the beer industry is expected to lag behind pre-COVID-19 expectations, the immediate fallout, which posed a challenging landscape for big and small players alike, has largely leveled out. Consumers have shown a preference to fall back on familiar brands which they derive enjoyment from, with a willingness to pay a premium price, instead of switching to cheaper alternatives.

^*GlobalData’s COVID-19: COVID-19 Impact Market Model – Consumer Goods – June 5 update – value US$
^*2GlobalData’s Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker Consumer Survey – Week 10 (June 3) – global – a bit/lot worse responses combined GlobalData’s Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker Consumer Survey – Week 10 (June 3) – global –
^*3started buying/same/more/significantly more/stockpiling responses combined,
^*4 buying slightly lower/significantly lower/stopped altogether responses combined
Data is adjusted weekly following COVID-19 developments, therefore subject to change