Brazil: Larger crop may recover juice inventories

New estimates for the 2017/18 orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may affect ending stocks of the season, on June 30, 2018. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that the larger orange harvest may more than double the juice volume held by processing companies in São Paulo, compared to the same period last season.

The Association says that the season may finish with juice inventories at 254.2 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice), which represents 12 weeks of consumption. This figure is 22 % higher than that estimated in August 2017; however, it is still the fourth lowest over the last 20 years.

Although still uncertain, initial expectations indicate that the 2018/19 orange production will be smaller than in the current season, except in southwestern São Paulo (Avaré and surroundings), where the weather may allow production similar to that in 2017/18. Therefore, there is nothing indicating orange juice surplus, also based on the good performance of exportations.

The recovery of inventories compared to the CitrusBR projection released in August was already expected by the sector, given that estimates for the orange crop, performed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), has already been reviewed upwards three times since the first release of CitrusBR. In the first estimate (May/17), Fundecitrus forecast 364.5 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro; however, due to favorable weather conditions during the season and better cultural practices, that estimate was revised up to 397.27 million boxes on the projection released on February, 15.

The good rainfall, on the other hand, may affect industrial revenue (number of necessary orange boxes to produce one ton of concentrate juice). CitrusBR data indicate that, on the average of the season, 282.49 orange boxes may be necessary for each juice ton, 5.7 % more compared to the previous estimate (August).

2017/18 CROP – According to Fundecitrus data released on February 15, the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may produce 397.27 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges in the 2017/18 season, 62 % more than in the 2016/17 season (245.3 million boxes) and 3.13 % higher in relation to December forecasts. Fundecitrus says that, considering all varieties, 97 % of the total of the crop has already been harvested.