Citrus April forecast: Florida all orange production unchanged from March

Regressions

Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to these 10 seasons unless noted.

All Oranges 67.0 Million Boxes

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 67.0 million boxes. The total includes 33.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 34.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the April all orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 3 percent, with 5 seasons above and 5 below, and differences ranging from 7 percent below to 5 percent above.

Non-Valencia Oranges 33.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production remains at 33.0 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted March 29-30, 2017, showed 99 percent of the early-midseason rows are harvested. Non-Valencia estimated utilization to April 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 32.9 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is lowered by 50,000 boxes at 800,000 boxes, 2 percent of the non-Valencia total.

Valencia Oranges 34.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production remains at 34.0 million boxes. Final fruit size is close to the minimum, requiring 242 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. The survey indicated final droppage at 30 percent, slightly below the maximum. The Row Count survey showed 28 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested.

All Grapefruit 8.10 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 800,000 boxes to 8.10 million boxes. Changes were made in both the white and red grapefruit forecasts. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 200,000 boxes 1.50 million, and the red grapefruit forecast is lowered 600,000 boxes to 6.60 million. Estimated utilization to April 1, with an allocation for non-certified use, of white grapefruit is 1.42 million boxes and red grapefruit is 6.24 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted March 29-30, 2017, indicated 94 percent of both the white and the red grapefruit rows are harvested.

Tangerines and Tangelos 1.64 Million Boxes

The forecast of early tangerine varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is final at 600,000 boxes with 225,000 boxes of Fallglo tangerines and 375,000 boxes of Sunburst tangerines. Harvest is complete for these varieties this season. The Royal tangerine forecast is raised 20,000 boxes to 240,000 boxes.

The later maturing Honey tangerine forecast is raised 130,000 boxes to 520,000 boxes. Estimated utilization to April 1, with an allocation of non-certified use is 478,000 boxes. The Row Count Survey conducted March 29-30, 2017 indicated 79 percent of the Honey tangerine rows were harvested.

The tangelo portion of the all tangerine forecast remains at 280,000 boxes. Estimated utilization to April 1 is 277,000 boxes, which includes an allocation for non-certified fruit. The Row Count survey showed 95 percent of the tangelo rows are harvested.

FCOJ Yield 1.42 Gallons per Box

The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is lowered to 1.42 gallons per box of 42 °Brix concentrate. Projections for the late (Valencia) portion is unchanged 1.54 gallons per box. The final yield for non-Valencia oranges is 1.336596 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) in Report No. 21. Last season’s final yields, as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus were: 1.405527 gallons per box for all oranges, 1.347046 gallons per box for non-Valencia oranges, and 1.472983 gallons per box for late (Valencia) oranges.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: http://bit.ly/2oXalBX