Citrus March forecast: Florida all orange production down 4 percent from February

Regressions

Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to these 10 seasons unless noted.

All Oranges 67.0 Million Boxes

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 3.00 million boxes to 67.0 million boxes. The total now includes 33.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 34.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the March all orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 4 percent, with 6 seasons above and 4 below, and differences ranging from 13 percent below to 9 percent above.

Non-Valencia Oranges 33.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 33.0 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 23-24, 2017, showed 98 percent of the early-midseason rows, and 92 percent of the Navel rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 32.6 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 850,000 boxes, 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.

Valencia Oranges 34.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is down 1.00 million boxes to 34.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is close to the minimum and is projected to remain close to the minimum until harvest, requiring 243 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Current droppage is below the maximum and projected droppage at 29 percent would be below the maximum at harvest.

All Grapefruit 8.90 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 100,000 boxes to 8.90 million boxes. The change was made in the red grapefruit forecast, now at 7.20 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is held at 1.70 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 23-24, 2017, indicated 78 percent of the red grapefruit rows and 57 percent of the white grapefruit rows are harvested.

Tangerines and Tangelos 1.49 Million Boxes

The forecast of all tangerine production is lowered 70,000 boxes to 1.49 million boxes. The forecast of early tangerine varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is final at 600,000 boxes with 225,000 boxes of Fallglo tangerines and 375,000 boxes of Sunburst tangerines. Harvest is complete for these varieties this season. The Royal tangerine forecast is held at 220,000 boxes. The later maturing Honey tangerine forecast is unchanged at 390,000 boxes. The Row Count Survey conducted February 23-24, 2017 indicated 15 percent of the Royal tangerine rows were harvested and 36 percent of the Honey tangerine rows were harvested.

The tangelo forecast is lowered 40,000 boxes to 280,000 boxes. Estimated utilization to March 1 is 265,000 boxes, which includes an allocation for non-certified fruit. The Row Count survey conducted February 23-24, 2017, showed 90 percent of the rows are harvested.

FCOJ Yield 1.43 Gallons per Box

The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is unchanged at 1.43 gallons per box of 42° Brix concentrate. Projections for the components are 1.34 gallons per box for the early-midseason portion, and 1.54 gallons per box for the late (Valencia) portion. Last season’s final yield, as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus were: 1.405527 gallons per box for all oranges, 1.347046 gallons per box for early-midseason oranges, and 1.472983 gallons per box for late (Valencia) oranges.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast on: https://www.nass.usda.gov