Citrus February forecast: Florida all orange production down 1 percent from January

Regressions

Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to these 10 seasons unless noted.

All Oranges 70.0 Million Boxes

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 70.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be 14 percent less than last season’s final production. The total includes 35.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the February all orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 4 seasons above and 6 below, and differences ranging from 15 percent below to 10 percent above.

Non-Valencia Oranges 35.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 35.0 million boxes. Size and Drop components were final last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 26-27, 2017, showed 72 percent of the early-midseason rows, and 83 percent of the Navel rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 25.9 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, remains at 900,000 boxes.

Valencia Oranges 35.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 35.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is close to the minimum and is projected to remain close to the minimum until harvest. Current droppage is below the maximum and projected droppage at 29 percent would be below the maximum at harvest.

All Grapefruit 9.00 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 9.00 million boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 7.30 million boxes, while the white grapefruit continues at 1.70 million boxes. Fruit size and drop are final in this report. Both white and red grapefruit sizes are less than the minimum. White grapefruit drop is higher than the maximum, while red grapefruit is just below the maximum set last season. The Row Count survey conducted January 26-27, 2017, indicated 41 percent of the red grapefruit rows and 29 percent of the white grapefruit rows are harvested.

Tangerines and Tangelos 1.56 Million Boxes

The forecast of all tangerine production is raised 40,000 boxes to 1.56 million boxes. The forecast of early tangerine varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is now 630,000 boxes with 230,000 boxes of Fallglo tangerines and 400,000 boxes of Sunburst tangerines.

Harvest is relatively complete for these varieties this season. The Royal tangerine forecast is held at 220,000 boxes. The later maturing Honey tangerine forecast is raised to 390,000 boxes. Although final Honey fruit size is above last month’s projection, it is below average, requiring 320 pieces of fruit to fill a 1-3/5 bushel box. The final droppage rate of 46 percent is close to last month’s projection and below the maximum. Harvest of the Royal and Honey varieties is underway.

The tangelo forecast remains at 320,000 boxes. Estimated utilization to February 1 is 242,000 boxes, which includes an allocation for non-certified fruit. The Row Count survey conducted January 26-27, 2017, showed 53 percent of the rows are harvested.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Florida/Publications/Citrus/Citrus_Forecast/2016-17/cit0217.pdf