Citrus January forecast: Florida all orange production down 1 percent from December

All oranges 71.0 million boxes

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 71.0 million boxes, down 1.00 million boxes from December, and 13 percent less than last season’s production. The forecast consists of 36.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the January forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 5 percent, with 6 seasons above and 4 below, and with differences ranging from 15 percent below to 10 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.

Non-Valencia oranges 36.0 million boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 36.0 million boxes. Estimated utilization through December, including an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 12.0 million boxes, compared to 13.9 million boxes last season. Final fruit size is below the minimum, requiring 317 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage at 26 percent is above average but below last season’s record of 32 percent. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is lowered 100,000 boxes to 900,000 boxes.

Valencia oranges 35.0 million boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is down 1.00 million boxes to 35.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the average, and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is near the maximum and projected to continue to be near the maximum until harvest.

All grapefruit 9.00 million boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 300,000 boxes to 9.00 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 300,000 boxes to 1.70 million boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 7.30 million boxes. Current fruit size of white grapefruit is slightly below the minimum while droppage is above the maximum. Current fruit size of red grapefruit is below the minimum while droppage is slightly below the maximum.

Tangerines and tangelos 1.52 million boxes

The forecast of tangerine and tangelo production is up 20,000 boxes to 1.52 million boxes. The early tangerine forecast (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is raised to 620,000 boxes, consisting of 220,000 boxes of Fallglo tangerines and 400,000 boxes of Sunburst tangerines. The Royal tangerine forecast is held at 220,000 boxes. The forecast of the later maturing Honey variety is unchanged at 360,000 boxes. Fallglo tangerine harvest is over, and the Sunburst harvest is nearly complete. Current Honey size is slightly below the minimum, but is projected to be above the minimum at harvest. Projected Honey droppage at 46 percent is close to the maximum.

The forecast of tangelo production is unchanged at 320,000 boxes. The Row Count survey conducted December 27-28, 2016, showed 41 percent of the tangelo rows were harvested. Harvest of the Orlando variety is almost complete for the season with the Minneola variety remaining.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast:  https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Florida/Publications/Citrus/Citrus_Forecast/2016-17/cit0117.pdf