Brazil: 2020-2021 final orange crop forecast update for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt – April 2022

Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes¹

The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:

• 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
• 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.