USDA: Florida citrus October 2021 forecast

All Oranges 47.0 Million Boxes

The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 47.0 million boxes, down 11 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 28.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 450,000 boxes, accounts for 2 percent of the non-Valencia total.

The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 49.4 million. Trees planted in 2018 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2021. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.

A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom. …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov